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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 39-L.Hedley punts 35 yards to GB 44, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds. PENALTY on GB-29-R.Douglas, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at GB 44.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.45 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP