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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 1
Green Bay Packers 3 – New Orleans Saints 17
What Actually Happened
(7:02) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+3.90 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
- 36% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 1, worth +0.34 EP
KICK
+1.87 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 1% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT
-0.25 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
