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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 25

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(8:37) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model