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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Josh McDaniels
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 20:20 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

PIT
43.0%
LV
57.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LV: Jimmy Garoppolo (LV) +0.229 vs Kenny Pickett (PIT) -0.074 EPA/dropback
  • LV defense: +0.119 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PIT 24
–
LV 25
Projected margin: LV by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PIT

Gunner Olszewski WR Out Concussion

LV

Tyree Wilson DE Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 23
–
LV 18

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:10 TD LV (7:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 0 – LV 6
  • Q1 06:21 TD PIT (6:21) (Shotgun) 8-K.Pickett pass deep middle to 19-C.Austin for 72 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-25-T.Moehrig, Defensive Holding, declined. PIT 6 – LV 7
  • Q2 08:37 FG PIT (8:37) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 10 – LV 7
  • Q2 02:00 FG PIT (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 13 – LV 7
  • Q3 09:33 FG PIT (9:33) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 16 – LV 7
  • Q3 04:00 TD PIT (4:00) 8-K.Pickett pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 22 – LV 7
  • Q4 05:44 TD LV (5:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 23 – LV 13
  • Q4 02:25 FG LV (2:25) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole. PIT 23 – LV 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.32 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:07) 6-P.Harvin punts 57 yards to LV 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 12 for 3 yards (93-M.Robinson).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 3 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (11:40) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to PIT 33, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-C.Austin to PIT 48 for 15 yards (36-C.Bolton). PENALTY on PIT-42-J.Pierre, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 33.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:41) 6-P.Harvin punts 59 yards to LV 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 26 for 12 yards (93-M.Robinson).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 1 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 78%

    (7:10) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep middle to 17-D.Adams for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:42) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to PIT 20, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 19-C.Austin to PIT 25 for 5 yards (45-Jak.Johnson, 50-J.Bobenmoyer).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:01) 6-P.Harvin punts 47 yards to LV 14, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 88%

    (8:37) 9-C.Boswell 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:12) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to PIT 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%

    (2:00) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (:47) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (14:05) 6-A.Cole punts 59 yards to PIT 9, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 63%

    (9:33) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 91%

    (13:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short middle to 16-J.Meyers (29-L.Wallace).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 63 yards to LV 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 20 for 13 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:47) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to LV 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 48 for 16 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 8 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (2:25) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to LV 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 15.