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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 68

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:12) 6-A.Cole punts 45 yards to PIT 23, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP