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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.60 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model