Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 12 at the 60

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

(:47) 6-A.Cole punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.16 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 60, worth -2.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model