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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 39

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:33) 9-C.Boswell 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.85 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.15 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model