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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 70

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 6-P.Harvin punts 63 yards to LV 7, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 20 for 13 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.37 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 70, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP