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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 73

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 15

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to LV 32, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter to LV 48 for 16 yards (28-M.Killebrew).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.23 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model