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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 8

Las Vegas Raiders 15 – Pittsburgh Steelers 23

What Actually Happened

(2:25) 2-D.Carlson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.63 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.28 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model