Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 64

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Las Vegas Raiders 18

(:23) 6-P.Harvin punts 56 yards to LV 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 3-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +0.43 EP
68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 64, worth -1.32 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model