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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 13

What Actually Happened

(:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-C.Moore to CLE 11 for 33 yards (29-C.Mitchell).

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 44, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model