4th & Data
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-09-24 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

TEN
36.9%
CLE
63.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: -0.147 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • Deshaun Watson (CLE): -0.191 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CLE offense: -0.115 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 18
–
CLE 23
Projected margin: CLE by 5 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

TEN

Kearis Jackson WR Out Ankle
Peter Skoronski T Out Abdomen
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Ankle
Denico Autry DE Questionable Foot
Anthony Kendall CB Questionable Hip

CLE

Greg Newsome CB Out Elbow
James Hudson T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 3
–
CLE 27

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:54 FG CLE (7:54) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. TEN 0 – CLE 3
  • Q2 14:18 FG TEN (14:18) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. TEN 3 – CLE 3
  • Q2 09:44 TD CLE (9:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 34-J.Ford for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – CLE 9
  • Q2 01:05 FG CLE (1:05) 7-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. TEN 3 – CLE 13
  • Q3 05:54 TD CLE (5:54) 68-M.Dunn reported in as eligible. 34-J.Ford left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – CLE 19
  • Q4 06:58 TD CLE (6:58) 4-D.Watson pass deep left to 2-A.Cooper for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 3 – CLE 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 79%

    (7:54) 7-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:24) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. TEN-36-J.Chestnut was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 3 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (5:05) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to TEN 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-M.Kinsey pushed ob at TEN 39 for 13 yards (5-A.Walker).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 19 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 19% p(FG) 85%

    (14:18) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 19 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 36%

    (3:57) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 71%

    (1:05) 7-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 46%

    (:29) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 11-C.Moore to CLE 11 for 33 yards (29-C.Mitchell).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (11:34) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 48 yards to CLE 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 15 for -2 yards (45-C.Campbell; 57-L.Gifford).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:56) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 36%

    (:19) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to TEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 97
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (13:32) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 67 yards to CLE 30, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-D.Peoples-Jones MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 23. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 36 for 13 yards (50-J.Gibbens).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 57%

    (8:20) 4-D.Watson right guard to TEN 38 for 2 yards (49-A.Key).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (4:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 6 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:13) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to TEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds. PENALTY on TEN-56-M.Rice, Offensive Holding, 5 yards, enforced at TEN 10.