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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 3 – Cleveland Browns 20

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 73, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 31, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model