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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 40
Cleveland Browns 20 – Tennessee Titans 3
What Actually Happened
(8:20) 4-D.Watson right guard to TEN 38 for 2 yards (49-A.Key).
The Three Options
GO
+1.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.34 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -1.64 EP
KICK
+0.13 EP
- 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 43% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
