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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 49 yards to CLE 19, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds. TEN-36-J.Chestnut was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 26, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model