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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 57

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 45 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.54 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 57, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model