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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 72

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.62 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 72, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 30, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP