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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Pederson
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 09:30 Wembley Stadium, London GB ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

ATL
46.2%
JAX
53.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • JAX defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • JAX offense: -0.075 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • Desmond Ridder (ATL): -0.051 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL crossing 6 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

ATL 22
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

ATL

Josh Ali WR Out Ankle
Cordarrelle Patterson RB Questionable Thigh

JAX

Zay Jones WR Out Knee
Devin Lloyd LB Out Thumb
Antonio Johnson S Out Hamstring
Jamal Agnew WR Questionable Quadricep
Folorunso Fatukasi DT Questionable Shoulder
Anton Harrison T Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 7
–
JAX 23

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:50 TD JAX (5:50) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 0-C.Ridley for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-K.Elliss]. ATL 0 – JAX 6
  • Q2 14:56 FG JAX (14:56) 10-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. ATL 0 – JAX 10
  • Q2 04:42 TD JAX (4:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 31-Dari.Williams at JAX 39. 31-Dari.Williams for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – JAX 16
  • Q3 11:42 TD ATL (11:42) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 5-D.London for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – JAX 17
  • Q4 10:41 FG JAX (10:41) 10-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. ATL 7 – JAX 20
  • Q4 02:00 FG JAX (2:00) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. ATL 7 – JAX 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:36) 9-L.Cooke punts 50 yards to ATL 7, impetus ends at ATL 3, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-20-D.Thomas.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (9:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 61 yards to JAX 23, Center-49-L.McCullough. 11-P.Washington to JAX 28 for 5 yards (37-D.Hellams; 40-K.Smith). JAX-11-P.Washington was injured during the play.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 60%

    (6:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to ATL 28 for 10 yards (24-A.Terrell). JAX-17-E.Engram was injured during the play.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:32) 13-B.Pinion punts 58 yards to JAX 16, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 38
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (14:56) 10-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 72
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (10:14) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to ATL 13, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (2:26) 16-T.Lawrence sacked at ATL 12 for -5 yards (90-D.Onyemata).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:05) 13-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to JAX 20, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 11 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (7:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 13 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 27%

    (3:04) 13-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to JAX 10, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 5 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 86%

    (10:41) 10-B.McManus 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 3 at the 6
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (6:06) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London (37-T.Herndon) [44-T.Walker].

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 20 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 91%

    (2:00) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.