Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 11 at the 54

Jacksonville Jaguars 17 – Atlanta Falcons 7

(7:32) 9-L.Cooke punts 47 yards to ATL 7, Center-46-R.Matiscik, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.99 EP
69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model