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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 20

Jacksonville Jaguars 20 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 10-B.McManus 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.40 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.18 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 20, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model