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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(6:54) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short middle to 13-C.Kirk to ATL 28 for 10 yards (24-A.Terrell). JAX-17-E.Engram was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.67 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model