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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 38

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 10-B.McManus 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.11 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.84 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model