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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 53

Cleveland Browns 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.25 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 53, worth -2.72 EP
KICK -1.35 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model