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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.0 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

BAL
49.2%
CLE
50.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BAL: Dorian Thompson-Robinson (CLE) -0.446 vs Lamar Jackson (BAL) -0.013 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson in place of Deshaun Watson)
  • CLE defense: -0.185 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • BAL offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.067 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 19
–
CLE 20
Projected margin: CLE by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BAL

Rashod Bateman WR Out Hamstring
Odell Beckham WR Out Ankle
Marlon Humphrey CB Out Foot
David Ojabo LB Out Ankle
Odafe Oweh LB Out Ankle
Ronnie Stanley T Doubtful Knee
Kyle Hamilton S Questionable Back
Justice Hill RB Questionable Foot
Marcus Williams S Questionable Pectoral
Tyler Linderbaum C Questionable Ankle

CLE

David Njoku TE Questionable Face
Deshaun Watson QB Questionable right Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 28
–
CLE 3

Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:42 TD BAL (6:42) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left guard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – CLE 0
  • Q1 02:26 FG CLE (2:26) 7-D.Hopkins 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. BAL 7 – CLE 3
  • Q2 04:21 TD BAL (4:21) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-95-M.Garrett, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 13 – CLE 3
  • Q2 00:17 TD BAL (:17) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – CLE 3
  • Q4 06:02 TD BAL (6:02) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – CLE 3

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 4 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (12:50) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to CLE 25, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 8 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 23%

    (9:43) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 33 yards to BAL 20, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:43) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to CLE 32, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 38 for 6 yards (40-M.Harrison).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 13 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (:51) 11-J.Stout punts 59 yards to CLE 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 28 for 10 yards (25-K.Seymour).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to BAL 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 4 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 42%

    (8:51) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to BAL 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-29-C.Mitchell.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:52) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 45 yards to BAL 26, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 63%

    (10:04) 8-L.Jackson right end pushed ob at CLE 35 for 2 yards (22-G.Delpit).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:38) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 88-H.Bryant. 88-H.Bryant up the middle to CLE 35 for 2 yards (26-G.Stone).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (2:04) 11-J.Stout punts 51 yards to CLE 4, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:30) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to BAL 37, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:59) 11-J.Stout punts 56 yards to CLE 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Peoples-Jones pushed ob at CLE 15 for 8 yards (18-L.Treadwell). Penalty on CLE, Illegal Formation, declined.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 9 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:47) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 67 yards to BAL 7, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 35 for 28 yards (43-M.Diabate).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (2:22) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to CLE 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.