Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 13 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Cleveland Browns 3

(2:22) 11-J.Stout punts 39 yards to CLE 29, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 11-D.Peoples-Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.59 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 68, worth -3.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model