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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 76

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 11-J.Stout punts 44 yards to CLE 32, Center-69-T.Ott. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 38 for 6 yards (40-M.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.89 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 76, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 34, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model