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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 50

Chicago Bears 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(11:27) 16-T.Gill punts 34 yards to DEN 16, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

The Three Options

GO +1.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.13 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 50, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 14, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP