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Denver Broncos

HC Sean Payton
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Eberflus
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

DEN
56.4%
CHI
43.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.191 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to DEN: Justin Fields (CHI) -0.215 vs Russell Wilson (DEN) -0.074 EPA/dropback
  • DEN defense: +0.163 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DEN 22
–
CHI 19
Projected margin: DEN by 3 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DEN

Frank Clark LB Out Hip
Josey Jewell LB Out Hip
Mike Purcell DT Out Ribs
Justin Simmons S Questionable Hip

CHI

Josh Blackwell CB Out Hamstring
Eddie Jackson S Out Foot
Jaylon Johnson CB Out Hamstring
Travis Homer RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 31
–
CHI 28

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:15 TD DEN (5:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 38-J.McLaughlin for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 15:00 TD CHI (15:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 2-D.Moore for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. DEN 7 – CHI 6
  • Q2 11:50 TD CHI (11:50) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass deep right to 85-C.Kmet for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – CHI 13
  • Q2 06:15 TD CHI (6:15) 1-J.Fields pass short right to 85-C.Kmet for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – CHI 20
  • Q3 04:18 TD CHI (4:18) 1-J.Fields pass short left to 24-K.Herbert for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – CHI 27
  • Q3 00:20 TD DEN (:20) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 89-B.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – CHI 28
  • Q4 09:40 TD DEN (9:40) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 14-C.Sutton for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 20 – CHI 28
  • Q4 07:05 TD DEN (7:05) 1-J.Fields sacked at CHI 42 for -10 yards (42-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (42-N.Bonitto), RECOVERED by DEN-0-J.Cooper at CHI 35. 0-J.Cooper for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 27 – CHI 28
  • Q4 01:51 FG DEN (1:51) 16-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon. DEN 31 – CHI 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 34%

    (11:27) 16-T.Gill punts 34 yards to DEN 16, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-M.Mims.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 1 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 41%

    (1:40) Direct snap to 85-C.Kmet. 85-C.Kmet up the middle to DEN 46 for 1 yard (0-J.Cooper; 49-A.Singleton).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DEN 44, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 4 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (8:43) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CHI 15, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.28 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:36) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to CHI 16, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 27%

    (:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right (2-P.Surtain) [99-Z.Allen].

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:46) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to CHI 26, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-T.Taylor pushed ob at CHI 34 for 8 yards (20-M.Burton).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:10) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to DEN 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 34 for 25 yards (12-V.Jones).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 18 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (2:57) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to DEN 18 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).

  • Q4 DEN 4th & 10 at the 33 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 75%

    (1:51) 16-W.Lutz 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Holder-9-R.Dixon.