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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 53

Chicago Bears 21 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(:06) (Shotgun) 1-J.Fields pass incomplete deep right (2-P.Surtain) [99-Z.Allen].

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +1.43 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 53, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -0.56 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 15, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP