Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 65

Chicago Bears 28 – Denver Broncos 14

(14:10) 16-T.Gill punts 56 yards to DEN 9, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-M.Mims pushed ob at DEN 34 for 25 yards (12-V.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.06 EP
56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model