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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 18

Chicago Bears 28 – Denver Broncos 28

What Actually Happened

(2:57) (Shotgun) 24-K.Herbert left tackle to DEN 18 for no gain (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.05 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 18, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model