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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 47

Chicago Bears 0 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(1:40) Direct snap to 85-C.Kmet. 85-C.Kmet up the middle to DEN 46 for 1 yard (0-J.Cooper; 49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.15 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.39 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model