Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 94

Denver Broncos 7 – Chicago Bears 7

(13:07) 9-R.Dixon punts 38 yards to DEN 44, Center-48-M.Fraboni, fair catch by 15-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -3.32 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth -0.34 EP
57% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 94, worth -5.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model