Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 24

(11:51) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to DET 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 10 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.96 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model