4th & Data
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Thursday 2023-09-28 · 20:15 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DET
52.4%
GB
47.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.277 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • GB offense: +0.054 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • GB defense: -0.048 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

DET 24
–
GB 23
Projected margin: DET by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

DET

Jason Cabinda FB Out Knee
Matt Nelson T Out Ankle
Halapoulivaati Vaitai G Out Knee
Taylor Decker T Questionable Ankle
Jonah Jackson G Questionable Thigh
Kerby Joseph S Questionable Hip
David Montgomery RB Questionable Thigh
Emmanuel Moseley CB Questionable Knee

GB

Zayne Anderson S Out Hamstring
David Bakhtiari T Out Not injury related - resting player
De'Vondre Campbell LB Out Ankle
Elgton Jenkins G Out Knee
Jaire Alexander CB Questionable Back
Aaron Jones RB Questionable Hamstring
Zach Tom T Questionable Knee
Carrington Valentine CB Questionable Biceps
Christian Watson WR Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 34
–
GB 20

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:03 FG GB (12:03) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DET 0 – GB 3
  • Q1 08:22 TD DET (8:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 14-A.St. Brown for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – GB 3
  • Q1 02:58 TD DET (2:58) 5-D.Montgomery left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – GB 3
  • Q2 14:10 FG DET (14:10) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 17 – GB 3
  • Q2 13:22 TD DET (13:22) (No Huddle) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 23 – GB 3
  • Q2 00:38 FG DET (:38) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 27 – GB 3
  • Q3 08:22 TD GB (8:22) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short left to 9-C.Watson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – GB 9
  • Q4 14:57 TD GB (14:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 27 – GB 17
  • Q4 06:03 TD DET (6:03) 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 33 – GB 17
  • Q4 02:56 FG GB (2:56) 17-A.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. DET 34 – GB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 10 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (12:03) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57%

    (1:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to DET 25, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (14:10) 36-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:51) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to DET 20, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 10 yards (58-I.McDuffie).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 14 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (9:21) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to GB 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, touched at GB 12, recovered by GB-43-K.Thomas at GB 8.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to DET 24, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 92%

    (:38) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 9 at the 17
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

    (9:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs to DET 2 for 15 yards (21-T.Walker).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (6:23) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to GB 30, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:04) 19-D.Whelan punts 51 yards to DET 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 11-K.Raymond to DET 24 for 9 yards (45-Er.Wilson). PENALTY on DET-42-J.Reeves-Maybin, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 21.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (1:05) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to GB 34, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-44-M.Rodriguez.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (6:03) 5-D.Montgomery right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 19 at the 78 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:46) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to GB 31, Center-47-S.Daly. 25-K.Nixon to DET 35 for 34 yards (46-J.Campbell, 25-W.Harris).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 32 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (2:56) 17-A.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 87%

    (1:11) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 19 for 5 yards (29-R.Douglas).