Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 64

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 3

(9:21) 3-J.Fox punts 50 yards to GB 14, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-J.Reed MUFFS catch, touched at GB 12, recovered by GB-43-K.Thomas at GB 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.62 EP
69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model