4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 76

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 24

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to DET 24, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.43 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 76, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model