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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 19

Detroit Lions 24 – Green Bay Packers 3

What Actually Happened

(:38) 36-R.Patterson 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.72 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.44 EP
KICK +2.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model