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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:03) 17-A.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.50 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model