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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(9:34) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 87-R.Doubs to DET 2 for 15 yards (21-T.Walker).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.50 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 27, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.55 EP