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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 72

Detroit Lions 27 – Green Bay Packers 11

What Actually Happened

(6:23) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to GB 30, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 11-J.Reed.

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.72 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model