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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 32

Green Bay Packers 17 – Detroit Lions 34

What Actually Happened

(2:56) 17-A.Carlson 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.57 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 32, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model