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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 3 – Detroit Lions 14

What Actually Happened

(1:27) 19-D.Whelan punts 47 yards to DET 25, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.70 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model