Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 57

New York Jets 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to KC 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.91 EP
60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model