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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2023-10-01 · 20:20 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -9.5 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

KC
76.0%
NYJ
24.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.158 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.206 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.226 EPA/dropback
  • KC defense: -0.075 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 27
–
NYJ 17
Projected margin: KC by 10 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

KC

Nick Bolton LB Out Ankle
Jaylen Watson CB Out Shoulder

NYJ

Tony Adams S Out Hamstring
Wes Schweitzer G Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 23
–
NYJ 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:39 FG KC (11:39) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 08:41 TD KC (8:41) 10-I.Pacheco left tackle for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 03:32 TD KC (3:32) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep right to 83-N.Gray for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 13:27 SAF NYJ (13:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right to 11-M.Valdes-Scantling (3-J.Whitehead) [47-B.Huff]. PENALTY on KC-74-J.Taylor, Face Mask, 7 yards, enforced in End Zone, SAFETY - No Play. KC 17 – NYJ 2
  • Q2 09:53 FG NYJ (9:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. KC 17 – NYJ 5
  • Q2 06:31 TD NYJ (6:31) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 87-C.Uzomah for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – NYJ 11
  • Q2 02:18 FG KC (2:18) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 20 – NYJ 12
  • Q3 10:44 TD NYJ (10:44) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short left to 10-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 20 – NYJ 18
  • Q4 10:54 FG KC (10:54) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 23 – NYJ 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 93%

    (11:39) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:46) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to KC 21, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 12-M.Washington pushed ob at KC 31 for 10 yards (21-A.Davis; 26-B.Echols).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (6:18) 5-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to KC 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (14:22) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to KC 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-44-J.Sherwood. PENALTY on KC-2-J.Williams, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 4 yards, enforced at KC 8.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 96%

    (9:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 19
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 92%

    (2:18) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 71%

    (:30) 9-G.Zuerlein 52 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (9:04) 5-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NYJ 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 47 for 11 yards (41-J.Winchester, 54-L.Chenal).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (7:28) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to KC 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 7 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 53 yards to NYJ 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 82-X.Gipson.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 49%

    (3:21) 5-T.Morstead punts 31 yards to KC 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (10:54) 7-H.Butker 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.