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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 13

New York Jets 2 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 9-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.31 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model