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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 19

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 7-H.Butker 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.61 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP