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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 20 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(9:04) 5-T.Townsend punts 45 yards to NYJ 36, Center-41-J.Winchester. 82-X.Gipson to NYJ 47 for 11 yards (41-J.Winchester, 54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -2.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model